Lessons for the Age of Consequences: COVID-19 and the Macroeconomy

Comparative empirical evidence for 22 OECD countries shows that country differences in cumulative mortality impacts of SARS-CoV-2 are caused by weaknesses in public health competences, pre-existing variances in structural socio-economic and public health vulnerabilities, and the presence of fiscal constraints. Remarkably, the (fiscally non-constrained) U.S. and the U.K. stand out, as they experience mortality outcomes similar to those of fiscally-constrained countries. High COVID19 mortality in the U.S. and the U.K. is due to pre-existing socio-economic and public health vulnerabilities, created by the following macroeconomic policy errors: (a) a deadly emphasis on fiscal austerity (which diminished public health capacities, damaged public health and deepened inequalities);(b) an obsessive belief in a trade-off between ‘efficiency' and ‘equity', which is mostly used to justify extreme inequality;(c) a complicit endorsement by mainstream macro of the unchecked power over monetary and fiscal policy-making of global finance and the rentier class;and (d) an unhealthy aversion to raising taxes, which deceives the public about the necessity to raise taxes to counter the excessive liquidity preference of the rentiers and to realign the interests of finance and of the real economy. The paper concludes by outlining a few lessons for a saner macroeconomics.

RECENZE NA KNIHU: TERORISMUS A RADIKALIZACE V ČESKÉ REPUBLICE: MOŽNOSTI DETEKCE RIZIKOVÝCH OSOB

Z pohledu politologie i bezpečnostních studií lze konstatovat, že radikalizační tendence se projevují nejenom v on-line prostředí, ale i v české sociální realitě, kde již byly zaznamenány reálné trestné činy, které skončily odsouzením pachatelů (např. podle 312d financování terorismu, nebo 312e podpora a propagace terorismu dle Trestního zákoníku č. 40/2009 Sb.). Kolektivní monografie se snaží představit bezpečnostní hrozby radikalizace a terorismu nejenom z hlediska multidisciplinámě teoretických poznatků, ale i na základě zkušeností bezpečnostní praxe. Další komplikace při analyzování konkrétních motivů může být způsobena odmítnutím pachatele vypovídat a spolupracovat nejen s vyšetřovateli, ale i psychology/psychiatry. Ideologická rovina může být jen součástí celého komplexu vlivů, přičemž k dalším lze považovat osobnost pachatele, situační faktory, ale i představy a bludy (např. o postmortální slávě, blíže s. 16). Šestá kapitola, kterou napsala J. Mottlová, se zaměřuje na možnosti detekce radikalizace a extremismu z pohledu Probační a mediační služby (dále jen PMS). PMS je představena jako organizace zajišťující výkon alternativních trestů a opatření, týkající se trestní politiky ČR (dohledu nad obviněnými nebo odsouzenými osobami atp.). Autorka považuje PMS, především pak dohled probačního úředníka, za podstatný institut umožňující detekci radikalizačních procesů, resp. opatření v rámci deradikalizačních a nápravných opatření. Představeny jsou mechanismy, které obecně používá PMS, například dohled nahrazující ochranné léčení. Zajímavá je i uvedená kazuistika (s. 166 - 168), která blíže představuje procesy PMS u konkrétního pachatele (včetně výkonu ústavní léčby, ambulantní psychiatrické léčby, nepodmíněného trestu odnětí svobody atp.). První z obou zmiňovaných kapitol mj. popisuje polarizaci české společnosti v důsledku pandemických opatření, ale také uvádí nárůst tzv. dezinformací. Následně jsou popsány rekrutační praktiky na sociálních sítích, ale i teroristické činy v pandemickém období (Francie, Rakousko). Na základě zahraničních studií je diskutován vliv konspiračních teorií, propagandy (např. džihádistické, oslavující Covid-19 jako zbraň proti západním společnostem), nenávistných komentářů na sociálních sítích, ale také konkrétní aktivity, včetně demonstrací.

In Theory: Nine Degrees of Uncertainty in Negotiations

Joint decision-making processes such as negotiations play a vital role in diverse societal contexts spanning from business and politics to sustainability-related negotiations. One of the most prominent examples of how negotiations play an important role in overcoming societal challenges was the COVID-19 vaccine supply negotiations. These negotiations have put the spotlight on an aspect of joint decision-making that always has been of great interest to both negotiation researchers and practitioners yet remains empirically understudied- the effect of uncertainty. In the present article, we develop a framework of uncertainty in negotiation using the COVID-19 vaccine supply negotiations between the European Union and pharmaceutical companies as an example. More specifically, we categorize different kinds of uncertainty based both on mathematical considerations (i.e., differentiation between risk, ambiguity, and uncertainty) as well as on more circumstantial factors. To do so, we adapted the nine kinds of uncertainty in environmental governance proposed by Dewulf and Biesbroek to the more general context of negotiations. We first differentiate between three natures of uncertainty (i.e., lack of knowledge, unpredictability, and interpretations) and three objects of uncertainty (i.e., issue- based, strategy- based, and context- based). Second, we illustrate the psychological barriers that negotiators face when handling uncertainty, before concluding with proposals for practitioners on how to manage different kinds of uncertainty. Overall, we aim at stimulating investigations of the effects of uncertainty in mixed- motive decision- making while simultaneously helping negotiation teachers and practitioners better cope with the additional demands created by specific kinds of uncertainty.

Restricting Human Movement During the COVID-19 Pandemic: New Research Avenues in the Study of Mobility, Migration, and Citizenship: IMR

Every government in the world introduced restrictions to human mobility – that is, the movement of persons across and within state borders – in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Such restrictions thus constituted a global phenomenon, but they were by no means globally uniform;rather, they varied significantly between and within states, as well as over time. This research note presents different data sources for studying the drivers and outcomes of mobility restrictions, highlighting specific ways in which the data can be used. We begin by surveying seven new databases capturing various aspects of the regulation of human movement during the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing inspiration from research on previous pandemics, we then outline five possible research avenues prompted by these data. We suggest that explaining the causes and consequences of such restrictions, as well as the differences between them, can significantly advance research on the governance of mobility, migration, and citizenship.

Fear the fear: the historical analogies of COVID-19 in US–China relations

The impacts of the novel coronavirus (hereafter COVID-19) pose one of the greatest crises of our generation. The policy decisions that the US and Chinese governments take will shape the current order of international relations, the global supply chain of medical supplies, and US–China relations. The COVID-19 crisis leads to the empirical puzzles: how do the two great world powers construct their narratives on the global pandemic and toward each other? What are the meanings, if any, of fear in US–China relations? This study explores the narrative of fear that is constituted in the US and China discourse. The historical analogies, such as the Boxer Indemnity, sick man of Asia, and Pearl Harbor attack, offer great examples to the political construction of the "fearful” other through specific representations amid the outbreak of COVID-19. Specifically, they have become the "cultural scripts” that define how they interact and who they are. The article proceeds as follows. First, this study examines the current literature of realism, constructivism, and discourse analysis. Second, it proposes a comparative framework for understanding the expressions of fear and threat perceptions for both countries. Specifically, the "Pearl Harbor Moment” from the US, and "the Boxer Indemnity” from the Chinese government substantially shape the landscape of US–China relations. Third, it highlights how the political elites appropriate these historical analogies in constructing their political identities and offers insights into the future of US–China relations. Finally, this article concludes with thoughts on the studies on the struggle of great powers and implications for pandemic politics.

MEDZINÁRODNÁ VEDECKÁ KONFERENCIA: „INTERPOLIS 2022" 1

Za uplynulých 19 rokov teoretický seminár prešiel svojím vlastným vývojom a bol povýšený na medzinárodnú vedeckú konferenciu INTERPOLIS, prostredníctvom ktorej nielen doktorandi, ale i mnohí ďalší odborníci, či už z akademickej obce alebo praxe majú vytvorený priestor na odprezentovanie výsledkov svojej vedecko-výskumnej činnosti a práce, ale i na vytvorenie kontaktov pre prípadnú spoluprácu a ďalší rozvoj. (s. 32) Autor umiestňuje analýzu krízy do všeobecnejšieho kontextu teoretickej analýzy modernosti, resp. moderného politického systému. (s. 253 - 261) Agendou nečinnosti malých obcí na území Prešovského samosprávneho kraja pri odpovedaní na žiadosti o sprístupnenie informácií v zmysle zákona NR SR č. 211/2000 Z. z. o slobodnom prístupe k informáciám v zn. n. p. sa vo svojom príspevku zaoberal P. Fajak.

Opening industry data: The private sector's role in addressing societal challenges

This commentary explores the potential of private companies to advance scientific progress and solve social challenges through opening and sharing their data. Open data can accelerate scientific discoveries, foster collaboration, and promote long-term business success. However, concerns regarding data privacy and security can hinder data sharing. Companies have options to mitigate the challenges through developing data governance mechanisms, collaborating with stakeholders, communicating the benefits, and creating incentives for data sharing, among others. Ultimately, open data has immense potential to drive positive social impact and business value, and companies can explore solutions for their specific circumstances and tailor them to their specific needs.

Governing Rural Poverty on Urban Streets: Guangzhou's Management of Beggars in the Reform Era

This study investigates how discourses on panhandling intertwine with the governance of beggars on China's urban streets. It focuses on local policy implementation in Guangzhou city, led by the bureau of civil affairs along with its centres for "custody and repatriation” and "assistance stations.” The study aims to understand how the state regulates panhandling and engages with beggars in public spaces. Exploring the internal logic of the state's approach and how it has changed during the 40 years of reform, it also considers the junctures at which contradictions and conflicts arise. Based on fieldwork data (2011 to 2014) and the analysis of government documents, yearbooks, academic and mass media discourses, I argue that the state's treatment of panhandlers poses a conundrum as welfare measures conflict with control. While several layers of state regulation and actors contradict each other and create grey areas of state-induced informality, people who beg for alms are continuously criminalized and excluded from public space.

Taiwan's Food Resiliency - or Not - in a Conflict with China

The US military, intelligence, and diplomatic communities have overlooked a key vulnerability in their assessment of a potential military conflict between China and Taiwan- Taiwan's growing reliance on agricultural imports and its food stocks (except for rice) that could endure trade disruptions for only six months. This article assesses Taiwan's agricultural sector and its ability to feed the country's population if food imports and production are disrupted;identifies the food products that should be prioritized in resupply operations, based on Taiwan's nutritional needs and domestic food production;and outlines the required logistical assets. These findings underscore the urgency for US military planners to develop long-term logistical solutions for this complex strategic issue.

Feminist Governance in the European Parliament: The Political Struggle over the Inclusion of Gender in the EU's COVID-19 Response

The research objective of this article is to analyze the European Parliament's response to the COVID-19 pandemic from the perspective of feminist governance. Feminist governance can either play a role in ensuring the inclusion of a gender perspective in crisis responses, or, quite the opposite, crises may weaken or sideline feminist governance. The empirical analysis focuses on two aspects of feminist governance: (1) a dedicated gender equality body and (2) gender mainstreaming. In addition to assessing the effectiveness of feminist governance, the analysis sheds light on the political struggles behind the policy positions. The article argues that feminist governance in the European Parliament was successful in inserting a gender perspective into the COVID-19 response. The article pinpoints the effects of the achievements of the European Parliament's Women's Rights and Gender Equality Committee and gender mainstreaming on gendering the pandemic crisis response.

Public Attitudes to Immigration in the Aftermath of COVID-19: Little Change in Policy Preferences, Big Drops in Issue Salience: IMR

How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected public attitudes toward immigration? Long-term evidence in Europe and the United States suggests attitudes to immigration are relatively stable and, in some cases, becoming more favorable with high volatility instead of the perceived importance of the issue. However, theoretically a global pandemic could exacerbate people's fears of outsiders or that migration may contribute to the disease. By contrast, attitudes could remain stable if their distal drivers prove to be robust enough to withstand the shock of COVID-19. We draw from Eurobarometer data from 2014 to 2021 across 28 European countries, weekly national survey data during the outbreak from the United States and individual panel data from the United Kingdom and Germany to find little systematic change in immigration preferences and no country-level correlation between the observed changes and the outbreak's severity. Instead, the perceived importance of immigration has consistently and significantly decreased. These findings suggest that, if COVID-19 is to have an impact on attitudes to migration, it is likely to emerge via longer-term means, such as early-life socialization and value change, rather than reactions to the immediate pandemic shock.

Fit for purpose? The patents regime, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and sustainable development

This article uses data from several publicly available databases to show that the distribution of intellectual property for frontier technologies, including those useful for sustainable development, is very highly skewed in favor of a handful of developed countries. The intellectual property rights (IPR) regime as it exists does not optimize the global flow of technology and know-how for the attainment of the sustainable development goals and is in need of updating. Some features of the Fourth Industrial Revolution imply that the current system of patents is even more in need of reform than before. COVID-19 vaccines and therapies and the vast inequality in access to these has highlighted the costs of inaction. We recommend several policy changes for the international IPR regime. Broadly, these fall into three categories: allowing greater flexibility for developing countries, reassessing the appropriateness of patents for technologies that may be considered public goods, and closing loopholes that allow for unreasonable intellectual property protections.

Negative Integration Is What States Make of It? Tackling Labour Exploitation in the German Meat Sector

In this article, we trace Germany's recent reform (and its precursors) seeking to remedy precarious working conditions in the meat sector. Focusing on an extreme case of labour exploitation, and asking how unique it is, allows us to uncover which institutional features of EU Member States condition the liberalization effects of negative integration. We thereby contribute to the literature on Europeanization, which has mainly emphasized weak industrial relations to account for the German meat industry's reliance on cheap migrant labour. Complicated enforcement structures, demanding requirements of administrative cooperation, and the complexities of an evolving case law, we argue, further contributed to the precarious conditions of migrant workers in Germany. Major COVID outbreaks in slaughterhouses created the political momentum for reform which specifically addresses this administrative side of labour protection, but remains limited to the meat sector – despite similar patterns of labour exploitation elsewhere.

Learning Together: Experimental Evidence on Promoting Connections in Remote Classes

How can instructors best foster connections among students when learning is fully remote? This article describes a pedagogical experiment conducted in two large introductory political science courses at a large public university in the 2020–2021 academic year. We randomly assigned groups of students to different sets of instructions on how to study together remotely for an exam. Our strongest finding is that almost any effort by an instructor prompting students to work together helps students to feel more connected to one another;however, students often need to see and hear one another to feel connected. We find this to be tremendously encouraging—relatively easy interventions can result in significant improvements in learning.

Immigrant Legal Status among Essential Frontline Workers in the United States during the COVID-19 Pandemic Era: IMR

Emerging evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has extracted a substantial toll on immigrant communities in the United States, due in part to increased potential risk of exposure for immigrants to COVID-19 in the workplace. In this article, we use federal guidance on which industries in the United States were designated essential during the COVID-19 pandemic, information about the ability to work remotely, and data from the 2019 American Community Survey to estimate the distribution of essential frontline workers by nativity and immigrant legal status. Central to our analysis is a proxy measure of working in the primary or secondary sector of the segmented labor market. Our results indicate that a larger proportion of foreign-born workers are essential frontline workers compared to native-born workers and that 70 percent of unauthorized immigrant workers are essential frontline workers. Disparities in essential frontline worker status are most pronounced for unauthorized immigrant workers and native-born workers in the secondary sector of the labor market. These results suggest that larger proportions of foreign-born workers, and especially unauthorized immigrant workers, face greater risk of potential exposure to COVID-19 in the workplace than native-born workers. Social determinants of health such as lack of access to health insurance and living in overcrowded housing indicate that unauthorized immigrant essential frontline workers may be more vulnerable to poor health outcomes related to COVID-19 than other groups of essential frontline workers. These findings help to provide a plausible explanation for why COVID-19 mortality rates for immigrants are higher than mortality rates for native-born residents.

Reflections on trust and COVID-19: do politics, medicine and the environment need each other?

This short article is centred on how trust can be a valuable resource for developing cognate responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in the medical and social sciences. Politics and medicine can learn from each other. Governments need to persuade individuals to adapt their behaviours, and such persuasion will be all the more convincing in that it is nested in social networks. Trust in government requires consistent (benevolent, performative and joined-up) explanations. The distinction between hard medical and soft social science blurs when patients/citizens are required to be active participants in combatting a pandemic virus.

Earth Power in the New Geopolitics

The best way to think about the climate emergency is to imagine humanity has just arrived at a new planet somewhere in a distant galaxy. After all, as scientists tell us, our planet Earth will soon look like a new planet, with conditions radically changed from the 'climate niche' of the past 10,000 years, during which human civilization developed. Once settled on the new planet, our task is to terraform it, to build a new natural environment fit for human life and human flourishing. My general approach to the politics of climate change thus differs from the most common view among environmentalists. I do not believe we can speak of climate change as a product of the Anthropocene, the human-built world. Our inability to control the consequences of climate change shows this is still at heart a natural process, one triggered by human beings or, more specifically, by our limited ability to control natural processes and therefore by our incapacity to control the unintended consequences of our actions and choices. The solution to the climate emergency is not to exit the Anthropocene but, intriguingly, to enter it for the first time. The world building is a task significantly full of existential meaning and urgency.